Method for optimizing health and productivity of milk producing animals

ABSTRACT

A method is disclosed for calculating a transition monitor value for one or more milk-producing animals so as to enable its use in evaluating and optimally managing the health and productivity (i.e., the transition performance) of those individual animals and of their herds. An expected milk production is calculated for a given time period of a current lactation based both on the individual&#39;s performance in her previous lactation and on her current state. Transition monitor values are calculated as the difference between actual and expected milk production values. The transition monitor values can then be used to evaluate and to optimize the health and productivity of both individuals and herds of individuals and to make comparisons of transition monitor programs both within and between herds.

CROSS REFERENCES

This application is entitled to the benefit of U.S. Provisional PatentApplication Ser. No. 60/716,781, filed 2005 Sep. 13, and of U.S.Provisional Patent Application Ser. No. 60/755,277, filed 2005 Dec. 29.

STATEMENT REGARDING FEDERALLY SPONSORED RESEARCH OR DEVELOPMENT

Not applicable.

BACKGROUND

In herds of milk-producing animals such as dairy cows, the management ofindividuals during the transition period between lactations is veryimportant. This is because the transition performance of an individualanimal is highly influenced by health and/or disease, both of which can,in turn, be affected by management practices. The better the transitionperformance of an individual, the greater her overall health andproductivity in the current lactation. Monitoring the transitionperformance of milk-producing animals is therefore of great importanceto informing transition program management practices. A review of thesebasic concepts can be found in Kenneth V. Nordlund and Nigel B. Cook,Using herd records to monitor transition cow survival, productivity, andhealth (Vet. Clin. Food Anim. 20: 627-649, November 2004) hereinafterincorporated by reference in its entirety.

Currently available methods for evaluating transition performance failto provide unbiased and objective measures of transition performance forindividual animals. The ability to monitor change and to evaluate thesuccess of innovations at a farm level remains relatively crude. Herdmanagers implement new transition management practices and evaluate theresponse within their herd using a variety of factors. Many dairies havehealth records to allow them to track changes in the number of diseaseevents on their own dairy, but inconsistencies in case definition makeit difficult to compare disease rates both within and between farms.Milk production monitors in early lactation are often based upon averageperformance of the animals that calve in a short period of time. Theseare easily skewed by a small number of either better or poorer animalsthat freshen a month earlier or later. Herd effects therefore confoundthe results. Other production monitors based upon first test dateinformation are frequently confounded by variations in days in milk atfirst test date.

For the foregoing reasons there is a need for a method which objectivelyand accurately predicts an individual milk-producing animal's currentmilk performance based on objective measures of her own past performanceand current state, and which monitors the transition programs ofindividuals and herds so that the health and productivity of bothindividuals and herds of individuals may be optimized through informedtransition programs.

SUMMARY

The present invention is directed to a method that satisfies these needsby providing means for accurately predicting, based on objectivemeasures of her own individual previous lactation's performance andcurrent state, an individual milk-producing animal's expected currentmilk performance, particularly during the early phase of the currentlactation, or transition period, which is highly influenced by healthand/or disease. The present invention further provides a method forutilizing this prediction to calculate a monitor of transitionperformance of individuals and herds during the early phase of currentlactations for use in analyzing transition programs in order to bettermanage both individuals and herds for optimal health and productivity.

In one version, a method of using a computer for calculating atransition monitor value for one or more milk-producing animals at agiven time period in a current lactation (TM_ind,time) so as to enableits use in evaluating and optimally managing the health and productivityof the one or more milk-producing animals, is disclosed. The stepsgenerally consist of accessibly storing an animal data set comprising,for each of the one or more milk-producing animals, an amount of milkproduced in the individual's previous lactation(MP_actual,305,previous), a current number of days in milk at a test day(CDIM), and an actual amount of milk produced by the individual in acurrent lactation for the given time period (MP_actual,time); accessiblystoring a parameters data set comprising α, a regression coefficientintercept, and regression coefficients β associated withMP_actual,305,previous, and ε associated with CDIM; for each of said oneor more individual milk-producing animals, calculating an expectedamount of milk produced by the individual in the current lactation forthe given time period (MP_expected,time) by summing α, (β*MP_actual,305,previous) and (ε* CDIM); for each of said one or moreindividual milk-producing animals, calculating the transition monitorvalue (TM_ind,time) by subtracting the individual's MP_expected,timefrom her MP_actual,time; accessibly storing the transition monitor valuefor each of said one or more milk-producing animals; and, outputtingsaid transition monitor values for use in evaluating and optimizinghealth and productivity of the one or more milk-producing animals;whereby a method is provided for calculating the expected amount of milkproduced by an individual milk-producing animal in its current lactationbased on the individual's actual performance in its previous lactationand on its current state for use in calculating a transition monitorvalue indicative of the individual's transition performance and usablefor evaluating and optimizing the individual's health and productivity.

In another version, a herd-level transition monitor value is furthercalculated as an average over all individuals in a herd.

In still another version, a sire-specific transition monitor value iscalculated by averaging transition monitor values for all daughters of asire.

In still other versions, additional components are added to furtherrefine the model.

In still other versions of the present invention an apparatus, computerprogram product, and program storage device for performing the method ofthe present invention are disclosed.

The reader is advised that this summary is not meant to be exhaustive.Further features, aspects, and advantages of the present invention willbecome better understood with reference to the following description,accompanying drawings and appended claims.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

For a better understanding of the present invention, reference may bemade to the accompanying drawings, in which:

FIG. 1, shows a flow chart depicting basic steps in one version of themethod of the present invention; and,

FIG. 2, depicts the system of one version of the present invention.

DESCRIPTION

Referring now specifically to the figures, in which identical or similarsteps or parts are designated by the same reference numerals throughout,a detailed description of the present invention is given. It should beunderstood that the following detailed description relates to the bestpresently known embodiment of the invention. However, the presentinvention can assume numerous other embodiments, as will become apparentto those skilled in the art, without departing from the appended claims.

It should also be understood that, while the methods disclosed hereinmay be described and shown with reference to particular steps taken in aparticular order, these steps may be combined, sub-divided, orre-ordered to form an equivalent method without departing from theteachings of the present invention. Accordingly, unless specificallyindicated herein, the order and grouping of the steps is not alimitation of the present invention.

It should also be understood that, though the following descriptiondiscloses the invention as adapted for use with dairy cows particularly,the method may be applied to females of other types of milk-producinganimals as well, with values for the various individual-specific factorsand their respective coefficients being calculated based on data for theparticular species or breed.

Definitions

bST—Bovine somatotropin (bST) is a natural protein produced in thepituitary glands of all bovines that helps adult animals produce milk.bST is also a supplement for dairy cows used to enhance milk production.

Dairy Records Processing Center (DRPC)—DRPC's are organizations thatmeasure milk yield of cows, determine percent fat, percent protein, andother milk tests, and provide dairy herd and cow information managementtools to participating dairy herds.

First test day (“first test”)—The first test day is the day an animal'smilk production is first tested in her current lactation. Dairy cowsaverage about 19 days in milk at first test, but range from about 5 to40 days in most cases.

Lactation—Refers to the period of time during which an animal lactates.A lactation begins after calving and ends when an animal is not milkedany longer in preparation for calving again. Throughout the presentapplication two lactations are referenced, an individual's “previouslactation” and the following or, “current lactation.” The dry periodduring which an animal is not milked prior to calving is associated withthe lactation just completed (or, previous lactation). A lactation for adairy cow is generally about 300 to 360 days, or 10-12 months long.

Milk production (MP)—Milk production is the amount of milk an animalproduces during a certain period of time (“time;” e.g., on her firsttest day, over 305 days of lactation, or the like), either in a currentor previous lactation, and is generally expressed in units of pounds,though equivalent weight units such as kilograms may be used.

MP_actual,time—MP_actual,time is the amount of milk an animal actuallyproduces or is projected to produce in a certain period of time(“time”). The period of time may be the first test day (“first-test”),the first 305-days of a lactation period (“305”) either in her currentor previous lactation, or other periods of time (e.g., daily amount,weekly average or the like). The term “actual” is applied, because (a)if the time period is the first test day, the amount of milk produced bythe animal is weighed and so reflects the actual amount of milk theanimal produced; or, (b) if the time period is the first 305 days of thecurrent time period (or another time period), the amount of milk theanimal will produce during the first 305 days (or other time period) ofthe current lactation is projected based on the actual first test dayamount from (a). For example, MP_actual,first-test is the amount of milkan animal actually produced on her first test day of the currentlactation provided in units of lbs./day, kilograms/day or similarweight/time equivalents (e.g., a typical dairy cow value might be 80lbs/day (36 kilograms/day)). MP_actual,305 is the amount of milk ananimal is projected to produce in a 305-day period of her currentlactation based on the amount of milk she actually produced on her firsttest day (MP_actual,first-test), and other data, and is provided inunits of lbs. in 305 days, kilograms in 305 days, or similar weight/timeequivalents (e.g., a typical dairy cow value might be 20,000 lbs. in 305days (9,090 kilograms in 305 days)). Similarly, MP_actual,305,previousis the total amount of milk produced by an animal during the first 305days of her previous lactation and reflects the individual's pastperformance. Values for the various MP_actual,time amounts are typicallyprovided by a DRPC or other source. Ideally MP_actual,305 calculationsuse only individual-specific factors which do not confound the resultsby introducing herd-level effects, though this may vary by provider. Forexample, the herd production level adjustment that is sometimes appliedto 305-day projections for an animal through the first 155 days of eachlactation may be removed from the projection to eliminate a herd-leveleffect from the calculation.

MP_expected,time—MP_expected,time is the amount of milk an animal isexpected to produce during a period of time (“time”) in her currentlactation based on her past performance and current state. For example,MP_expected,first-test is the amount of milk an animal is expected toproduce on her first test day based on her performance in the previouslactation (i.e., MP_actual,305,previous) and on her current state.Likewise, MP_expected,305 is the amount of milk an animal is expected toproduce over the first 305-day period of her current lactation based onher past performance and current state. MP_expected,time values arecalculated according to the equations disclosed in the presentinvention. Units are similar to those described above forMP_actual,time.

Software, Parlor—Referring to milking parlors with meters to measuremilk yield of individual cows, parlor software is non-DRPC milkrecording software used by some herd managers to collect and managetheir own herd data. Parlor software is generally provided by milkingequipment manufacturers.

Software, Dairy Management—Dairy management software is dairy herdmanagement software that may use milk yield data retrieved from DRPCrecords centers or from parlor software systems.

Transition monitor (TM)—A transition monitor is a monitor of transitionprograms for individual cows or herds of cows. The transition monitorcombines the use of objective factors with individual cow-specificcalculations [including a prediction of the individual's futureperformance (i.e., MP_expected,time values) based on her pastperformance and current state] to provide an unbiased quantifiablemeasure of fresh cow health and performance usable for both within andbetween herd comparisons for optimizing health and performance of theindividuals and herd. Transition monitor values are based on comparisonsbetween actual and expected milk production amounts for similar timeperiods (“time”). For example, if the actual and expected milkproduction values are for the first test day time period, the individualtransition monitor values will likewise be for the first test day timeperiod (TM_ind,first-test). Likewise the transition monitor value willbe for the first 305-day time period (TM_ind,305) if the actual andexpected milk production values used are similarly for the first 305-dayperiod, and so on. Likewise for TM_herd,time calculations.

Transition period—The transition period generally refers to the periodof time between the end of an animal's previous lactation (i.e., thebeginning of the non-lactating or dry period before calving) and about40 days after the cow calves. The period generally includes the last 20to 30 days of the dry or non-lactating period through the first 40 daysafter the calving date. The transition period is typically a high-riskperiod of time for dairy cows because up to 80% of all dairy cow diseaseevents occur within this period.

Transition programs—Transition programs are management programs designedto improve overall well-being of cows, to increase milk production, andto reduce the risk of disease (both metabolic and infectious in nature)in the period after calving. Components of transition programs includespecific diets to prepare cows for high production, special nutritionaladditives to prevent metabolic disease, vaccinations to preventinfectious disease, and a multitude of management strategies to minimizesocial stresses on the cow as she completes her pregnancy and begins herlactation. Transition programs can have a substantial impact on whetheror not, or to what extent, newly freshened cows (i.e., cows that havejust calved) have disease problems. Good transition programs result incows that freshen with few disease problems, whose milk productionincreases rapidly after calving and remains higher throughout lactation.Deficiencies in transition programs can cause such problems as milkfever, retained placenta, ketosis and displaced abomasums, mastitis, andresult in reduced milk yield, altered milk components, and prematurereplacement or death. Accurate monitoring of the transition programs istherefore of great importance.

Detailed Description—Method

The method of the present invention is a method of using a computer forcalculating a transition monitor value for one or more milk-producinganimals so as to enable its use in evaluating and optimally managing thehealth and productivity (i.e., the transition performance) of thoseindividual cows and of their herds (see FIG. 1 for a flow chartdepicting steps in one version of the method). It should be noted that,though the equations and tables of parameter values that follow arespecifically directed to dairy cows, the basic methodology ofcalculating expected amounts of milk an individual will produce in acurrent lactation based on the individual's previous lactation andcurrent state, calculating transition monitor values based on same andthen using the transition monitor values for those same individuals toevaluate and to optimize their own and herd health and productivity, canbe applied across species or breeds of milk producing mammals providedsufficient and appropriate data are available in the form of animal andparameters data sets (see Step 100 below).

Calculating a transition monitor value for each individual animal andgiven time period (i.e., TM_ind,time) using that individual's own data,effectively makes the animal her own control yielding a quantifiablemeasure of the individual's transition performance unbiased by herdeffects and thereby greatly improved over traditional methods ofmonitoring fresh cow performance. The transition monitor valuescalculated by means of the present invention can then be used forevaluating an individual animal's transition performance and in makingbetter informed transition program management decisions for optimizingthe individual's health and productivity. Additionally, successivetesting on different test days within an animal's current lactation mayalso potentially be used as an on-going monitor of the cow and to enableearly detection of health problems.

Likewise, when transition monitor values are compiled for whole herds(i.e., TM_herd,time), herd-level management decisions and resultinghealth and productivity of the herd are optimized. By averaging thetransition monitor values for all animals within a herd, herd managerscan objectively compare the effectiveness of their transition cowmanagement programs to industry benchmarks. Both within and between herdcomparisons may be made. Likewise, the transition monitor values for aherd may be monitored over time in order to track ongoing fresh cowperformance and evaluate the effectiveness of management changes thatmay be implemented with the transition animals.

Referring to FIG. 1, the basic steps in the method of the presentinvention are depicted. Though the method may be applied to singleindividual animals, it may generally also be used to evaluate thetransition performance of a herd of animals (see Step 350 below).

Step 100—Accessibly store animal and parameter data sets. The followingsteps require that data be provided regarding each animal's current andpast state (i.e., an animal data set 190) and also that data be providedregarding the values for the intercept, coefficients and factors used inthe MP_expected,time calculations described at Step 300 below (i.e., aparameters data set 195) (see FIGS. 1 and 2). These data sets are thenaccessibly stored for use in the calculations described below at Steps300 and 350.

The animal data set 190 consists of a variety of individual-specificdata and is provided by a DRPC or other source with access to thatinformation. The data may typically include: the amount of milk theanimal produced in 305 days of her previous lactation (i.e.,MP_actual,305,previous; this value reflects her past performance); theamount of milk she actually produced on her first test day of thecurrent lactation (i.e., MP_actual,first-test); the amount of milk sheis projected to produce in 305 days of her current lactation based onthe MP_actual,first-test value (i.e., MP_actual,305) without herdproduction level adjustments; the number of days she had been milkedwhen the first test was taken (i.e., the date of the test minus thecalving date commencing the current lactation; CDIM, or current days inmilk at the first test day); the number of days she was milked in herprevious lactation (i.e., PDIM, or previous lactation days in milk); thecurrent lactation starting code [CLS; i.e., whether or not lactationbegan following an abortion or following a normal calving of a lactation2 or greater animal (i.e., whether it is the animal's first lactation);CLS is used to assign a value to factor CLSF at Step 200, see Table 1];the month in which her current lactation calving occurred (CM; CM isused to assign a value to factor CMF at Step 200, see Table 1); her lasttest somatic cell count from the previous lactation expressed as alinear score (i.e., PLOG); the number of days she was not milked priorto the start of the current lactation (i.e., current calving date minusdry-off date; DDRY, or days dry); the previous lactation starting codefactor (PLS; i.e., whether or not the prior lactation began following anabortion or a normal calving; if a normal calving, was it of a lactation2 or greater or was it of a lactation 1 animal; PLS is used to assign avalue to factor PLSF at Step 200, see Table 1); level of bST use in theherd during her previous lactation (BST; i.e., whether or not and atwhat rate bST was used; BST is used to assign a value to factor bSTF andbST305 at Step 200, see Table 1); her breed (“BRD”; BRD is used toassign a value to factor BRDF at Step 200, see Table 1); number of herprevious lactation (PL; e.g., if her current lactation is her 5^(th),her previous lactation number would be 4, and so on; PL is used toassign a value to factor PLF at Step 200, see Table 1); her currentlactation's milking frequency as of the test day (CLM; CLM is used toassign a value to factor CLMF at Step 200, see Table 1); her previouslactation's milking frequency (PLM; PLM is used to assign a value tofactor PLMF at Step 200, see Table 1); identification of her sire;success of her previous lactation; and other relevant data. Please notethat the variable designations used above are arbitrary (e.g., “PLS,”BST,” “PL,” etc.). They are simply used here as a means to more easilysignify the particular type of animal data when referenced in theremainder of this description.

The parameters data set 195 consists of values for the intercept,coefficients and factors used in versions of the MP_expected,timeequations described below (Step 300, Eqs. 1a-1d). These data areprovided for use from a source such as the present inventors and arebased on statistical analysis of data for animals in the relevant regionof the country or world and on the time period for which theMP_expected,time values are calculated (e.g., whether for first testday, MP_expected,first-test; or for 305-day period, MP_expected,305).The present model, for example, was developed from Midwestern UnitedStates regional factors that would likely be different in theSoutheastern or Southwestern regions of United States, as well as inother regions of the world. A sample of a parameters data set 195 ispresented below (see Step 300 example section and Table 1) with valuesbased on the first 305-day time period and Midwestern United Statesdairy cow data.

Parameter values are generally obtained by fitting a mixed effects modelto dairy cow data (e.g., from the Midwestern United States in thepresent example). A random effect is fitted (using restricted maximumlikelihood) corresponding to the categorical identifier for herd, andotherwise all effects are fitted as fixed effects (using generalizedleast squares based on the empirical covariance matrix including randomeffects). The fixed effects terms (see above under animal data set 190for definitions): BST, BRD, PL, PLS, PLM, CLS, CM, and CLM, are fittedas categorical (classification) effects (and thus appropriately coded asindicator variables). All other fixed effects are fitted as continuouseffects.

The particular values contained in the parameters data set 195 will alsodepend on whether the MP_expected,time amounts are being calculatedbased on first test day milk production values (i.e.,MP_expected,first-test) or for 305-day milk production values (i.e.,MP_expected,305). The parameters data set 195 will therefore varydepending on type of calculation (i.e., first-day or 305 day expectedvalues) and on source of the animal data used for the statisticalanalyses (e.g., by region of world, etc.).

As will be evident to the reader, the regression equations forMP_expected,time may also require periodic re-computation with thearrival of new data and new developments in the dairy industry, andwhenever milk production or other factors might be modified, in order toprovide appropriate values for the intercept, coefficients and factorsused to calculate expected first test and 305-day expected milkproduction values (i.e., MP_expected,first test and MP_expected,305).For example, new formulations of bST might be introduced that couldincrease the persistency of high milk production later into thelactation, which would in turn result in changed relationships to thebeginning of the subsequent lactation. Another example could be updatesand modifications of the factors used by DRPC centers, or other datasources, to calculate MP_actual,305 values.

The parameters data set 195 may include values for the followingintercept and coefficients used in the MP_expected,time calculationsdescribed below at Step 300 (Equations 1a-1d) including: α, a regressioncoefficient intercept; β, a regression coefficient associated withMP_actual,305,previous; ε, a regression coefficient associated withCDIM; γ=a regression coefficient associated with PDIM; δ=a regressioncoefficient associated with PLOG; and, ζ=a regression coefficientassociated with DDRY.

Further, the parameters data set 195 includes sets of values for eachfactor. Each factor's actual value applied in each individual'scalculation of MP_expected,time is set according to the related animaldata for the individual (see Step 200 below). Factors may include: afactor whose value depends on the current lactation starting code (CLS;i.e., CLSF, or current lactation starting code factor); a factor whosevalue depends on the month in which the current lactation calvingoccurred (CM; i.e., CMF, or current lactation month factor); a factorwhose value depends on the previous lactation starting code (PLS; i.e.,PLSF, or previous lactation starting code factor); a bovine somatotropinfactor whose value depends on whether or not and at what rate bST wasused in the individual's previous lactation (BST; i.e., bSTF); a breedfactor whose value depends on the breed of the individual (BRD; i.e.,BRDF); a previous lactation factor whose value depends on the value ofthe previous lactation number (PL; i.e., PLF); a milking frequencyfactor whose value depends on the average number of times per day theindividual is milked in the current lactation as of the test day (CLM;i.e., CLMF, or current lactation milking frequency factor); a multiplierwhose value depends on the level of bST used individually if data areavailable, or in the herd generally (BST; i.e., bST305); and, a factorwhose value depends on the previous lactation milking frequency (PLM;i.e., PLMF, or previous lactation milking frequency factor); amongothers.

Step 200—For each individual animal for a given time period, setparameter values for use in MP_expected,time calculations (Step 300). Asdiscussed above, the parameters data set 195 includes sets of values foreach factor. The particular factor values used in solving the equationsat Step 300 are assigned based on various individual-specific conditions(i.e., conditions specified in the animal data set 190). In the presentstep, each factor's actual value applied in each individual'scalculation of MP_expected,time is set according to the related animaldata for the individual. For an example of values for various of theparameters and the conditions under which they are set, see Table 1below. Values for the intercept and coefficients depend on the animaldata used for the statistical analyses (described above at Step 100;e.g., region or origin, etc.) and on the type of MP_expected,timecalculations being performed (e.g., time period is first-test, 305-dayor some other time period).

Step 300—For each individual animal for a given time period, predict anexpected value for the animal's milk production in the current lactationbased on her past performance in the previous lactation and on hercurrent state.

MP_expected,time is the amount of milk an animal is predicted to produceduring a period of time in her current lactation. For example,MP_expected,first-test is the amount of milk the animal is expected toproduce on her first test day of the current lactation (lbs. milk/day;kilograms of milk/day). MP_expected,305 is the amount of milk the animalis expected to produce over the first 305-day period in her currentlactation (lbs. milk in 305 days; kilograms of milk in 305 days).

The MP_expected,time values predict the animal's performance in thecurrent lactation based upon the individual's prior history includingher actual production in the previous lactation (MP_actual,305,previous;i.e., her previous performance) with adjustment for her current state asindicated by one or more of the individual's current lactation factor(s)(see parameters data set 195 for examples). The calculation usesindividual-specific factors and is, therefore, free from confoundingherd effects.

Please note that though the following equations are specifically fordairy cows, a similar approach may be applied to other types of milkproducing animals such as other bovines or sheep and goats, providedsufficient data exist to develop the appropriate regression equationsand solve for the various parameter values.

The equation to solve for MP_expected,time is the same whether it isemployed to calculate MP_expected,first test or MP_expected,305.However, the values assigned to the various parameters (i.e., theintercept, coefficients and factors) will vary.

In its most basic form, MP_expected,time is calculated according to thefollowing algorithm (see definitions of parameters at Step 100,parameters data set 195, above):MP_expected,time=α+(β* MP_actual,305,previous)+(ε* CDIM)  Eq. 1a

Though equation 1a contains only two values (i.e.,MP_actual,305,previous and CDIM), these two values provide asubstantially accurate model for calculating the value forMP_expected,time. Additionally, Eq. 1a illustrates a basic innovation ofthe present invention, i.e., predicting an individual's expected milkproduction (MP_expected,time) based on her previous performance(MP_actual,305,previous) and current state (as represented by CDIM).

The addition of other factors may further refine the model. For example,the following equation (Eq. 1b) adds 3 more values to further improvethe model's accuracy (PDIM, CLSF and CMF):MP_expected,time=α+(β* MP_actual,305,previous)+(ε* CDIM)+(γ*PDIM)+CLSF+CMF  Eq. 1b

Still further refinement of the model may be obtained by the addition ofthree more factors as follows in Eq. 1c:MP expected=α+(β* MP_actual,305,previous)+(ε* CDIM)+(65 *PDIM)+CLSF+CMF+(δ* PLOG)+(ζ* DDRY)+PLSF   Eq. 1c

Though all of the above equations 1a to 1c yield substantially accurateresults, the following equation 1d contains still additional values toprovide the most highly refined of the models:MP_expected,time=α+(β* MP_actual,305,previous)+(ε* CDIM)+(γ*PDIM)+CLSF+CMF+(δ* PLOG)+(ζ* DDRY)+PLSF+bSTF+BRDF+PLF+CLMF+(bST305*MP_actual,305,previous)+PLMF  Eq. 1d

Step 300 Example—Calculating MP_expected,305. The following is anexample of the Step 100 calculation for the 305-day expected milkproduction, showing current values for the intercept, regressioncoefficients and factors (shown in the following table; as provided inthe parameters data set 195) and as calculated using Eq. 1d. These arethe best presently known values for the intercept, regressioncoefficients and factors for Eq. 1d, for calculation of theMP_expected,305. However, as mentioned previously, these values will bedifferent for MP_expected,first-test calculations, for 305-daycalculations, by region and when further information is acquired orupdated. Also, for Eqs. 1a-1c, the coefficients will need solution asper normal statistical analysis (see above at Step 100).MP expected,305=3246.2+(0.2941* MP_actual,305,previous)+(155.95*CDIM)+(−3.7218* PDIM)+CLSF+CMF+(−80.4888* PLOG)+(3.8618*DDRY)+PLSF+bSTF+BRDF+PLF+CLMF+(bST305* MP_actual,305,previous)+PLMF  Eq.1d′ (i.e., Eq. 1d with sample coefficient values provided)

where the values for the various regression coefficients were calculatedto equal,

α=3246.2;

β=0.2941;

γ=−3.7218;

δ=−80.4888;

ζ=3.8618; and,

ε=155.95;

and where the individual-specific factors are assigned values accordingto the following (note that these values may vary with available data,by region or due to other factors; generally the values or informationrequired to assign the values is retrieved from outside sources such asDRPCs or other providers): TABLE 1 Values for factors used in examplesolution of Eq.1d above (parameters data set 195 for 305-day time periodand Midwestern regional dairy cow data). For each individual, values areset conditionally (see Step 200) according to the individual-specificcriteria summarized in the present table and supplied from the animaldata set 190. Factor Value bSTF bovine somatotropin factor = −1206.58when BST data for the animal indicates that no bST was used in her priorlactation; −265.4 when BST data for the animal indicates that bST wasused in her prior lactation at a low rate; 0 when BST data for theanimal indicates that bST was used in her prior lactation at a mediumrate; and, 166.89 when BST data for the animal indicates that bST wasused in her prior lactation at the Label rate. BRDF Breed factor =−522.47 if BRD data indicates the animal is an Ayrshire (AY), Lineback(LD), Normandy (NM), or Simmental (SM); −91.4430 if BRD data indicatesthe animal is a Brown Swiss (BS); −670.42 if BRD data indicates theanimal is a Guernsey (GU); 885.99 if BRD data indicates the animal is aHolstein (HO); −1476.83 if BRD data indicates the animal is a Jersey(JE); 151.11 if BRD data indicates the animal is a Milking Shorthorn(MS), Blue & White (BW), Dutch Belted (DL), or, Red Dane (RD); 967.50 ifBRD data indicates the animal is a Red and White (WW) or Norwegian Red(NR); 0 if BRD data indicates the animal is a Crossbreed (XX), Gelbvieh(GV) or Red Polled (RP) PLF previous lactation factor = 1024.02 if PLdata for the animal indicates that her previous lactation was her first;1503.92 if PL data for the animal indicates that her previous lactationwas her second; 1187.52 if PL data for the animal indicates that herprevious lactation was her third; 954.67 if PL data for the animalindicates that her previous lactation was her fourth; 658.74 if PL datafor the animal indicates that her previous lactation was her fifth;479.60 if PL data for the animal indicates that her previous lactationwas her sixth; 503.74 if PL data for the animal indicates that herprevious lactation was her seventh; 418.71 if PL data for the animalindicates that her previous lactation was her 8th; and, 0 if PL data forthe animal indicates that her previous lactation is her 9th or greater.CLMF Current lactation milking frequency factor (average milkingfrequencies are rounded to whole numbers) = −2518.76 if CLM data for theanimal indicates that her current lactation average milking frequency asof the test day is 2; −1508.76 if CLM data for the animal indicates thather current lactation average milking frequency as of the test day is 3;−656.91 if CLM data for the animal indicates that her current lactationaverage milking frequency as of the test day is 4; and, 0 if CLM datafor the animal indicates that her current lactation average milkingfrequency as of the test day is 5 or greater. bST305 multiplier whosevalue depends on the level of bST used = 0.04711 when BST data for theanimal indicates that no bST was used in her previous lactation; 0.02165when BST data for the animal indicates that bST was used in her previouslactation at a low rate; 0 when BST data for the animal indicates thatbST was used in her previous lactation at a medium rate; and, −0.00886when BST data for the animal indicates that bST was used in her previouslactation at the Label rate. CLSF Current lactation starting code factor= 4753.73, if CLS data for the animal indicates that her calving wassuccessful and the current lactation is not her first (i.e.,lactation > 1) 0, if CLS data for the animal indicates that her calvingwas not successful (i.e., an abortion whether cow or heifer) CMF Monthof the current lactation factor [note that this factor will vary byregion of the country or world due to variations in weather and otherconditions] = 127.4 if CM data for the animal indicates she calved inJanuary; 259.09 if CM data for the animal indicates she calved inFebruary; 284.84 if CM data for the animal indicates she calved inMarch; 268.76 if CM data for the animal indicates she calved in April−7.3741 if CM data for the animal indicates she calved in May; −718.41if CM data for the animal indicates she calved in June; −1163.21 if CMdata for the animal indicates she calved in July; −1167.97 if CM datafor the animal indicates she calved in August; −915.97 if CM data forthe animal indicates she calved in September; −488.84 if CM data for theanimal indicates she calved in October; −191.9 if CM data for the animalindicates she calved in November; and, 0.0 if CM data for the animalindicates she calved in December PLSF Previous lactation starting codefactor = −1656.89, if PLS data for the animal indicates that her calvingwas successful and the lactation is not her first (i.e., lactation > 1)−676.14, if PLS data for the animal indicates that her calving wassuccessful and the lactation is her first (i.e, the individual is aheifer, first lactation) 0, if PLS data for the animal indicates thather calving was not successful (i.e., an abortion whether cow or heifer)PLMF Previous lactation milking frequency factor (note milkingfrequencies are rounded to whole numbers) 2117.53 if PLM data for theanimal indicates that her previous lactation milking frequency is 2;1415.65 if PLM data for the animal indicates that her previous lactationmilking frequency is 3; and, 0 if PLM data for the animal indicates thather previous lactation milking frequency is 4 or greater.

Step 350—For each individual animal for a given time period, calculate atransition monitor value (TM_ind,time) as the difference between theexpected and actual values for her milk production.

The transition monitor value for an individual animal (TM_ind,time), iscalculated as the difference between the expected (MP_expected,time) andactual (MP_actual,time) values for milk production in the animal'scurrent lactation for a given time period (“time”). Values for expectedamounts of milk production for different time periods (i.e.,MP_expected,first-test, or MP_expected,305) are calculated according tothe equations disclosed above. Values for actual amounts of milkproduced by an individual animal are provided by DRPC centers or othersources, whether for the first test day (MP_actual,first-test) or forthe projected 305-day milk production, without the standard herdproduction level adjustment if less than 155 days in milk,(MP_actual,305) in the current lactation.

The basic equation for the calculation of an individual's transitionmonitor value is,TM_ind,time=MP_actual,time−MP_expected,time  Eq. 2

where,

MP_actual,time—is the actual milk production by the individual for aparticular time period [e.g., when the time period is the first-testday, MP_actual,first-test is the actual amount of milk the individualproduced on that day; when the time period is 305 days (i.e.,MP_actual,305), “actual” milk production refers to the fact that thoughthe value is a projected value for milk production during the first 305days of the individual's current lactation, it is based on her actualmilk production at first test day (MP_actual,first-test)]. This value isgenerally provided by DRPC centers or other sources; and,

MP_expected,time—is the expected milk production by the individual for aparticular time period and is calculated as described above in Step 300.

Since MP_actual,time and MP_expected,time values may relate to eitherthe individual's milk production on her first test day or to her milkproduction over 305 days of her current lactation, the transitionmonitor may likewise vary accordingly. In other words, the transitionmonitor values may be calculated based on first test day values (i.e.,TM_ind,first-test, using MP_actual,first-test and MP_expected,first-testvalues), or based on 305-day milk production values (i.e., TM_ind,305,based on MP_actual,305 and MP_expected,305 values). Though the order ofmagnitude of the transition monitor value will vary depending on whichtypes of MP values are used in its calculation [e.g., aTM_ind,first-test value may be on the order of 20 lbs/day (9.1kilograms/day) versus a TM_ind,305 value which may be on the order of3,000 lbs. in 305 days (1,363 kilograms in 305 days)], the relativeresults will nevertheless similarly indicate transition performance ofthe animal. Positive values will indicate better transition performance,negative values poorer transition performance.

A positive transition monitor value indicates that an individualexceeded expectations and has experienced a positive transition period.A negative transition monitor value indicates that she did not meetexpected performance and has experienced a negative transition period.For example, if an animal's 305-day milk production is expected to be20,000 pounds (9,090 kilograms) in the current lactation [i.e.,MP_expected,305=20,000 lbs. (9,090 kilograms)], but her actual 305-dayproduction is 22,000 pounds (10,000 kilograms) [i.e.,MP_actual,305=22,000 lbs. (10,000 kilograms)], the transition monitorvalue (TM_ind,305)=22,000−20,000=+2,000 lbs. (+909 kilograms). Apositive value means the transition program is working well for thisparticular animal since she is actually producing better than predicted.By contrast, if the transition monitor value is negative, this indicatessome problem with the transition program relating to this animal becauseshe did poorer than predicted.

Step 500—Calculate a herd-level transition monitor value.

The transition monitor value for a herd may be calculated by summingTM_ind,time values over all individuals in the herd and dividing by thenumber of individuals. $\begin{matrix}{{TM\_ herd},{{time} = {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}{TM\_ ind}}},{{time}/n}} & {{Eq}.\quad 3}\end{matrix}$

where TM values are summed over all individuals i from i=1 to n (n=totalnumber of individuals in the herd).

As with TM_ind,time values, TM_herd,time values are based on data for aparticular time period (e.g., first test day or 305-day period incurrent lactation). For this reason, TM_herd,time values will varyrelative to the time period. So long as comparisons of TM_herd valueswithin and between herds are made for similar time periods, they will becomparable.

Step 600—Accessibly store TM_ind and/or TM_herd results. Results fromany of the calculations described at Steps 300 and 350 above, may beaccessibly stored in a results database 690 (see FIG. 2) for retrievaland use in subsequent analyses and presentations, etc. These results arethen available for use by herd managers and the like to evaluate andoptimally manage the health and productivity of individual animals andof herds of animals (see Step 700 below). The results are accessible toend users 780 for use in various types of analyses, presentations andthe like.

Step 700—Use transition monitor value results to evaluate and tooptimally manage health and productivity of individuals and/or herds.

The transition monitor values for individual animals (TM_ind,time) andfor herds of animals (TM_herd,time) may be used by dairy herd managersto evaluate and manage the health and productivity of those individualsand herds. By evaluating the results to determine if the productivity ofindividual animals and/or a herd is improving or not, managers canobjectively evaluate whether or not their transition program practicesare optimizing their health and productivity. If not, changes can bemade to those management practices, and the present invention'smethodology re-employed to evaluate whether those changes are improvinghealth and productivity or not.

Within and between herd comparisons. Because the transition monitorvalues are objective measures, they may be used to compare within herdmanagement practices such as differences between the transition programsapplied to different individuals within the herd, differences inpractices employed during different periods of time, and so on.Likewise, transition monitor values may be compared between herds todetermine if practices applied to one herd are more or less optimal thanthose applied to another.

Informing breeding programs to improve herd genetics. In addition towithin or between herd evaluations, other uses may also be made of thetransition monitor values. For example, the individual transitionmonitor values may be used to identify sires with the genetic tendencyto father offspring with good health and productivity during transitionperiods which, together with the transition monitor values forindividual animals, may be used to inform breeding programs in order tofurther improve the genetic health and productivity of herds.

To accomplish this, the animal data set 190 (see step 100 above) mayfurther include an identity of each animal's sire. The transitionmonitor values for individual animals may then also be associated withthe animal's sire. An average TM value for each sire (e.g.,TM_sire,time) may then be calculated as an average of transition monitorvalues over all the sire's daughters. $\begin{matrix}{{TM\_ sire},{{time} = {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}{TM\_ ind}}},{{time}/n}} & {{Eq}.\quad 4}\end{matrix}$

where transition monitor values are summed over all daughters of aparticular sire i from i=1 to n (n=total number of daughters of the sirefor which transition monitor values are available). As with the othertransition monitor values, the TM_sire calculations are for particularperiods of time to be comparable between sires.

As will be evident to the reader, these TM_sire,time values may betracked to evaluate the genetic tendency of a sire to produce offspringof greater or lesser levels of health and productivity, particularlyduring the early phase of current lactations. Knowing the genetictendencies of various sires may better inform herd breeding programs.Herd managers may, for example, select sires with higher positiveTM_sire,time values to improve progeny of an animal whose transitionmonitor values are low.

Early identification of sick animals. Another use of the abovetransition monitor values may be to calculate them on a daily basis inparlor software linked to milking parlors with daily milk weights. Ifdone on a daily basis in the first weeks after calving, transitionmonitor values could assist herdsmen to identify sick animals at earlierstages of illness and improve response to treatment.

As the reader will undoubtedly see, the transition monitor values andmethodologies described above can contribute in multiple ways tooptimizing the health and productivity of individual animals and herds.

Detailed description—system

A general-purpose computer, its component devices, and software, providemeans for implementing the method steps described above (see FIG. 2 forgeneral system diagram).

Inputs databases 190 and 195 are provided (animal database andparameters database, respectively). Accessibly stored in the databasesare the animal data set 190, the parameters data set 195 and any otherdata relevant to the calculations (see Step 100).

In a parameter module 290, individual-specific parameter values are setfor use in solving the MP_expected,time function (see Step 300)according to step 200 above in conjunction with parameter software 210and data processor 220. The parameter software 210 resides on a programstorage device 212 having a computer usable medium 214 (e.g., diskette,CD, DAT tape, or the like) for storing the program code. The programstorage device 212 may be of a conventional variety, such as aconventional disk or memory device. The parameter software 210 may becreated using general-purpose application development tools such asprogramming languages, graphical design tools, and commerciallyavailable reusable software components. A general database engine may beused to manage data storage and retrieval. The processor 220 is part ofa general-purpose computer system. Any general-purpose computer may beused, provided that the processing power is sufficient to achieve thedesired speed of computation for the amount of data being processed bythe system.

In a transition monitor module 390, the MP_expected,time function (i.e.,equations 1a, 1b, 1c, and/or 1d) and the transition monitor functions(i.e., equations 2, 3, and/or 4) are solved according to steps 300-500above in conjunction with transition monitor software 310 and dataprocessor 320. The transition monitor software 310 resides on a programstorage device 312 having a computer usable medium 314 (e.g., diskette,CD, DAT tape, or the like) for storing the program code. The programstorage device 312 may be of a conventional variety, such as aconventional disk or memory device. The transition monitor software 310may be created using general-purpose application development tools suchas programming languages, graphical design tools, and commerciallyavailable reusable software components. A general database engine may beused to manage data storage and retrieval. The processor 320 is part ofa general-purpose computer system. Any general-purpose computer may beused, provided that the processing power is sufficient to achieve thedesired speed of computation for the amount of data being processed bythe system.

It should be noted that, though the parameters module 290 and transitionmonitor module 390 may be provided separately as described above, they,and their component parts, may alternatively be combined. That is, themodules (290 and 390) may be provided as combined into a single modulein which the respective software (210 and 310) is fully integrated andshares a single program storage device and data processor.

Once the transition monitor value results are accessibly stored in aresults database 690 (see Step 600), they may be used in evaluating thecondition of individuals and herds and in optimally managing theirhealth and productivity. The results database 690 may be queried by anend user 780 who can request specific information from the systemthrough a query 790 and thereby produce customized output 770. Thesystem accommodates post-processing of the output data 770, allowingdelivery in various formats and through various electronic media. Thesystem can generate output 770 in the form of further analyses andpresentations as graphs, spreadsheets, maps, HTML documents, or otherformats. Queries 790 may be formulated to a user's specifications inorder to create customized output to use in evaluations and in makingmanagement decisions. The output 770 can be delivered electronicallythrough a variety of channels, including facsimile, e-mail, local areanetworks (LANs), wide area networks (WANs) and the worldwide web. It canalso, of course, be provided in hard copy.

The results database 690 itself, or customized output data 770, may beincorporated into a dairy industry's information management system forintra-net online access (via a LAN or WAN) to enable industry-wideaccess to results such as herd transition monitor (TM_herd,time) orsire-specific transition monitor values (TM_sire,time) and the like. Inthis way, the system of the present invention may be fully incorporatedinto a dairy's information system to provide a seamless interface totheir current individual and herd management structure.

Closing

Although the present invention has been described in considerable detailwith reference to certain preferred versions thereof, other versions arepossible. Therefore, the spirit and scope of the appended claims shouldnot be limited to the description of the preferred versions containedherein.

1. A method of using a computer for calculating a transition monitorvalue (TM_ind,time) for one or more milk-producing animals at a giventime period in a current lactation so as to enable its use in evaluatingand optimally managing the health and productivity of said one or moremilk-producing animals, using said computer to perform the followingsteps comprising: a) accessibly storing an animal data set comprising,for each of said one or more milk-producing animals, an amount of milkproduced in the individual's previous lactation(MP_actual,305,previous), a current number of days in milk at a test day(CDIM), and an actual amount of milk produced by the individual in acurrent lactation for the given time period (MP_actual,time); b)accessibly storing a parameters data set comprising α, a regressioncoefficient intercept, and regression coefficients β associated withMP_actual,305,previous, and ε associated with CDIM; c) for each of saidone or more individual milk-producing animals, calculating an expectedamount of milk produced by the individual in the current lactation forthe given time period (MP_expected,time) by summing α, (β*MP_actual,305,previous) and (ε* CDIM); d) for each of said one or moreindividual milk-producing animals, calculating the transition monitorvalue (TM_ind,time) by subtracting the individual's MP_expected,timefrom her MP_actual,time; e) accessibly storing the transition monitorvalue for each of said one or more milk-producing animals; and, f)outputting said transition monitor values for use in evaluating andoptimizing health and productivity of the one or more milk-producinganimals; whereby a method is provided for calculating the expectedamount of milk an individual milk-producing animal will produce in itscurrent lactation based on the individual's actual performance in itsprevious lactation and on its current state, for use in calculating atransition monitor value indicative of the individual's transitionperformance and usable for evaluating and optimizing the individual'shealth and productivity.
 2. The method of claim 1, wherein transitionmonitor values are calculated for two or more individual milk-producinganimals, said two or more individuals constituting a herd, the methodfurther comprising the step of calculating a transition monitor valuefor the herd (TM_herd,time) as,${TM\_ herd},{{time} = {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}\left( {{TM\_ ind},{{time}/n}} \right)}}$where, the transition monitor values are summed over all individuals ifrom i=1 to n, n equaling a total number of milk-producing animals inthe herd.
 3. The method of claim 1, wherein transition monitor valuesare calculated for two or more individual milk-producing animals, saidtwo or more individuals constituting a herd, and wherein, for each ofsaid two or more individuals the animal data set further comprises anidentify of the individual's sire, further comprising the step ofcalculating for each sire a transition monitor value (TM_sire,time)indicative of the overall transition performance of said sire'sdaughters for use in informing breeding programs to improve transitionperformance of a herd of milk-producing animals, the transition monitorvalue for each sire (TM_sire,time) being calculated as,${TM\_ sire},{{time} = {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}{TM\_ ind}}},{{time}/n}$where, the transition monitor values are summed over all of theidentified daughters of said sire i from i=1 to n, n equaling a totalnumber of daughters of said sire.
 4. A method of using a computer forcalculating a transition monitor value (TM_ind,time) for one or moremilk-producing animals at a given time period in a current lactation soas to enable its use in evaluating and optimally managing the health andproductivity of said one or more milk-producing animals, using saidcomputer to perform the following steps comprising: a) accessiblystoring an animal data set comprising, for each of said one or moremilk-producing animals, an amount of milk produced in the individual'sprevious lactation (MP_actual,305,previous), a current number of days inmilk at a test day (CDIM), an actual amount of milk produced by theindividual in a current lactation for the given time period(MP_actual,time), a previous lactation days in milk (PDIM), a currentlactation starting code; and a month at which the individual calved; b)accessibly storing a parameters data set comprising α, a regressioncoefficient intercept, regression coefficients β associated withMP_actual,305,previous, ε associated with CDIM, and β associated withPDIM, a plurality of values for each of a current lactation startingcode factor (CLSF) and a current lactation month factor (CMF), each ofsaid plurality of values dependent on the individual's current lactationstarting code and month at which she calved, respectively; c) for eachof said one or more individual milk-producing animals, setting thevalues for CLSF and CMF conditional on her current lactation startingcode and month at which she calved values, respectively; d) for each ofsaid one or more individual milk-producing animals, calculating anexpected amount of milk produced by the individual in the currentlactation for the given time period (MP_expected,time) by summing α, (β*MP_actual,305,previous), (ε* CDIM), (γ* PDIM), CLSF and CMF; e) for eachof said one or more individual milk-producing animals, calculating thetransition monitor value (TM_ind,time) by subtracting the individual'sMP_expected,time from her MP_actual,time; f) accessibly storing thetransition monitor value for each of said one or more milk-producinganimals; and, g) outputting said transition monitor values for use inevaluating and optimizing health and productivity of the one or moremilk-producing animals; whereby a method is provided for calculating theexpected amount of milk an individual milk-producing animal will producein its current lactation based on the individual's actual performance inits previous lactation and on its current state, for use in calculatinga transition monitor value indicative of the individual's transitionperformance and usable for evaluating and optimizing the individual'shealth and productivity.
 5. The method of claim 4, wherein transitionmonitor values are calculated for two or more individual milk-producinganimals, said two or more individuals constituting a herd, the methodfurther comprising the step of calculating a transition monitor valuefor the herd (TM_herd,time) as,${TM\_ herd},{{time} = {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}\left( {{TM\_ ind},{{time}/n}} \right)}}$where, the transition monitor values are summed over all individuals ifrom i=1 to n, n equaling a total number of milk-producing animals inthe herd.
 6. The method of claim 4, wherein transition monitor valuesare calculated for two or more individual milk-producing animals, saidtwo or more individuals constituting a herd, and wherein, for each ofsaid two or more individuals the animal data set further comprises anidentify of the individual's sire, further comprising the step ofcalculating for each sire a transition monitor value (TM_sire,time)indicative of the overall transition performance of said sire'sdaughters for use in informing breeding programs to improve transitionperformance of a herd of milk-producing animals, the transition monitorvalue for each sire (TM_sire,time) being calculated as,${TM\_ sire},{{time} = {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}{TM\_ ind}}},{{time}/n}$where, the transition monitor values are summed over all of theidentified daughters of said sire i from i=1 to n, n equaling a totalnumber of daughters of said sire.
 7. A method of using a computer forcalculating a transition monitor value (TM_ind,time) for one or moremilk-producing animals at a given time period in a current lactation soas to enable its use in evaluating and optimally managing the health andproductivity of said one or more milk-producing animals, using saidcomputer to perform the following steps comprising: a) accessiblystoring an animal data set comprising, for each of said one or moremilk-producing animals, an amount of milk produced in the individual'sprevious lactation (MP_actual,305,previous), a current number of days inmilk at a test day (CDIM), an actual amount of milk produced by theindividual in a current lactation for the given time period(MP_actual,time), a previous lactation days in milk (PDIM), a currentlactation starting code; and a month at which the individual calved, alast test somatic cell count from the previous lactation expressed as alinear score (PLOG), a number of days dry (DDRY), and a previouslactation starting code; b) accessibly storing a parameters data setcomprising α, a regression coefficient intercept, and regressioncoefficients β associated with MP_actual,305,previous, γ associated withCDIM, γ associated with PDIM, δ associated with PLOG, ζ associated withDDRY, a plurality of values for each of a current lactation startingcode factor (CLSF), a current lactation month factor (CMF), and aprevious lactation starting code factor (PLSF), each of said pluralityof values dependent on the individual's current lactation starting code,month at which she calved, and previous lactation starting code,respectively; c) for each of said one or more individual milk-producinganimals, setting the values for CLSF, CMF and PLSF conditional on hercurrent lactation starting code, month at which she calved and previouslactation starting code values, respectively; d) for each of said one ormore individual milk-producing animals, calculating an expected amountof milk produced by the individual in the current lactation(MP_expected,time) by summing α, (β* MP_actual,305,previous), (ε* CDIM),(γ* PDIM), CLSF, CMF, (δ* PLOG), (ζ* DDRY), and PLSF; e) for each ofsaid one or more individual milk-producing animals, calculating atransition monitor value (TM_ind,time) by subtracting the individual'sMP_expected,time from her MP_actual,time; f) accessibly storing thetransition monitor value for each of said one or more milk-producinganimals; and, g) outputting said transition monitor values for use inevaluating and optimizing health and productivity of the one or moremilk-producing animals; whereby a method is provided for calculating theexpected amount of milk an individual milk-producing animal will producein its current lactation based on the individual's actual performance inits previous lactation and on its current state, for use in calculatinga transition monitor value indicative of the individual's transitionperformance and usable for evaluating and optimizing the individual'shealth and productivity.
 8. The method of claim 7, wherein transitionmonitor values are calculated for two or more individual milk-producinganimals, said two or more individuals constituting a herd, the methodfurther comprising the step of calculating a transition monitor valuefor the herd (TM_herd,time) as,${TM\_ herd},{{time} = {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}\left( {{TM\_ ind},{{time}/n}} \right)}}$where, the transition monitor values are summed over all individuals ifrom i=1 to n, n equaling a total number of milk-producing animals inthe herd.
 9. The method of claim 7, wherein transition monitor valuesare calculated for two or more individual milk-producing animals, saidtwo or more individuals constituting a herd, and wherein, for each ofsaid two or more individuals the animal data set further comprises anidentify of the individual's sire, further comprising the step ofcalculating for each sire a transition monitor value (TM_sire,time)indicative of the overall transition performance of said sire'sdaughters for use in informing breeding programs to improve transitionperformance of a herd of milk-producing animals, the transition monitorvalue for each sire (TM_sire,time) being calculated as,${TM\_ sire},{{time} = {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}{TM\_ ind}}},{{time}/n}$where, the transition monitor values are summed over all of theidentified daughters of said sire i from i=1 to n, n equaling a totalnumber of daughters of said sire.
 10. A method of using a computer forcalculating a transition monitor value (TM_ind,time) for one or moremilk-producing animals at a given time period in a current lactation soas to enable its use in evaluating and optimally managing the health andproductivity of said one or more milk-producing animals, using saidcomputer to perform the following steps comprising: a) accessiblystoring an animal data set comprising, for each of said one or moremilk-producing animals, an amount of milk produced in the individual'sprevious lactation (MP_actual,305,previous), a current number of days inmilk at a test day (CDIM), an actual amount of milk produced by theindividual in a current lactation for the given time period(MP_actual,time), a previous lactation days in milk (PDIM), a currentlactation starting code; a month at which the individual calved, a lasttest somatic cell count from the previous lactation expressed as alinear score (PLOG), a number of days dry (DDRY), and a previouslactation starting code, an amount of bST use in the previous lactation,her breed type, number of her previous lactation, a current lactationmilking frequency at the test day, and, a previous lactation milkingfrequency; b) accessibly storing a parameters data set comprising α, aregression coefficient intercept, and regression coefficients βassociated with MP_actual,305,previous, ε associated with CDIM, γassociated with PDIM, δ associated with PLOG, and ζ associated withDDRY, a plurality of values for each of a current lactation startingcode factor (CLSF), a current lactation month factor (CMF), a previouslactation starting code factor (PLSF), a bovine somatotropin factor(bSTF), a breed factor (BRDF), a previous lactation factor (PLF), acurrent lactation milking frequency factor (CLMF), a multiplierdependent on level of bST use (bST305), and a previous lactation milkingfrequency factor (PLMF); each of said plurality of values dependent onthe individual's current lactation starting code, month at which shecalved, previous lactation starting code, amount of bST use in theprevious lactation, breed type, number of her previous lactation,current lactation milking frequency at the test day, and, previouslactation milking frequency, respectively; c) for each of said one ormore individual milk-producing animals, setting the values for CLSF,CMF, PLSF, bSTF, BRDF, PLF, CLMF, bST305 and PLMF conditional on hercurrent lactation starting code, month at which she calved, previouslactation starting code, amount of bST use in the previous lactation,her breed type, number of her previous lactation, current lactationmilking frequency at the test day, and, previous lactation milkingfrequency values, respectively; d) for each of said one or moreindividual milk-producing animals, calculating an expected amount ofmilk produced by the individual in the current lactation(MP_expected,time) by summing α, (β* MP_actual,305,previous), (ε* CDIM),(γ* PDIM), CLSF, CMF, (δ* PLOG), (ζ* DDRY), PLSF, bSTF, BRDF, PLF, CLMF,(bST305* MP305 previous), and PLMF; e) for each of said one or moreindividual milk-producing animals, calculating a transition monitorvalue (TM_ind,time) by subtracting the individual's MP_expected,timefrom her MP_actual,time; f) accessibly storing the transition monitorvalue for each of said one or more milk-producing animals; and, g)outputting said transition monitor values for use in evaluating andoptimizing health and productivity of the one or more milk-producinganimals; whereby a method is provided for calculating the expectedamount of milk an individual milk-producing animal will produce in itscurrent lactation based on the individual's actual performance in itsprevious lactation and on its current state, for use in calculating atransition monitor value indicative of the individual's transitionperformance and usable for evaluating and optimizing the individual'shealth and productivity.
 11. The method of claim 10, wherein transitionmonitor values are calculated for two or more individual milk-producinganimals, said two or more individuals constituting a herd, the methodfurther comprising the step of calculating a transition monitor valuefor the herd (TM_herd,time) as,${TM\_ herd},{{time} = {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}\left( {{TM\_ ind},{{time}/n}} \right)}}$where, the transition monitor values are summed over all individuals ifrom i=1 to n, n equaling a total number of milk-producing animals inthe herd.
 12. The method of claim 10, wherein transition monitor valuesare calculated for two or more individual milk-producing animals, saidtwo or more individuals constituting a herd, and wherein, for each ofsaid two or more individuals the animal data set further comprises anidentify of the individual's sire, further comprising the step ofcalculating for each sire a transition monitor value (TM_sire,time)indicative of the overall transition performance of said sire'sdaughters for use in informing breeding programs to improve transitionperformance of a herd of milk-producing animals, the transition monitorvalue for each sire (TM_sire,time) being calculated as,${TM\_ sire},{{time} = {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}{TM\_ ind}}},{{time}/n}$where, the transition monitor values are summed over all of theidentified daughters of said sire i from i=1 to n, n equaling a totalnumber of daughters of said sire.
 13. A program storage device readableby a machine, tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable bythe machine to perform method steps for calculating a transition monitorvalue (TM_ind,time) for one or more milk-producing animals at a giventime period in a current lactation so as to enable its use in evaluatingand optimally managing the health and productivity of said one or moremilk-producing animals, the method steps comprising: a) accessiblystoring an animal data set comprising, for each of said one or moremilk-producing animals, an amount of milk produced in the individual'sprevious lactation (MP_actual,305,previous), a current number of days inmilk at a test day (CDIM), and an actual amount of milk produced by theindividual in a current lactation for the given time period(MP_actual,time); b) accessibly storing a parameters data set comprisingα, a regression coefficient intercept, and regression coefficients βassociated with MP_actual,305,previous, and ε associated with CDIM; c)for each of said one or more individual milk-producing animals,calculating an expected amount of milk produced by the individual in thecurrent lactation for the given time period (MP_expected,time) bysumming α, (β* MP_actual,305,previous) and (ε* CDIM); d) for each ofsaid one or more individual milk-producing animals, calculating thetransition monitor value (TM_ind,time) by subtracting the individual'sMP_expected,time from her MP_actual,time; e) accessibly storing thetransition monitor value for each of said one or more milk-producinganimals; and, f) outputting said transition monitor values for use inevaluating and optimizing health and productivity of the one or moremilk-producing animals; whereby a method is provided for calculating theexpected amount of milk an individual milk-producing animal will producein its current lactation based on the individual's actual performance inits previous lactation and on its current state, for use in calculatinga transition monitor value indicative of the individual's transitionperformance and usable for evaluating and optimizing the individual'shealth and productivity.
 14. A computer program product comprising: a) acomputer usable medium and computer readable code embodied on saidcomputer usable medium for causing the calculating of a transitionmonitor value (TM_ind,time) for one or more milk-producing animals at agiven time period in a current lactation so as to enable its use inevaluating and optimally managing the health and productivity of saidone or more milk-producing animals, the computer-readable codecomprising: i) computer readable program code devices configured tocause the computer to effect the accessible storing of an animal dataset comprising, for each of said one or more milk-producing animals, anamount of milk produced in the individual's previous lactation(MP_actual,305,previous), a current number of days in milk at a test day(CDIM), and an actual amount of milk produced by the individual in acurrent lactation for the given time period (MP_actual,time); ii)computer readable program code devices configured to cause the computerto effect the accessible storing of a parameters data set comprising α,a regression coefficient intercept, and regression coefficients βassociated with MP_actual,305,previous, and ε associated with CDIM; iii)computer readable program code devices configured to cause the computerto effect the, for each of said one or more individual milk-producinganimals, calculating of an expected amount of milk produced by theindividual in the current lactation for the given time period(MP_expected,time) by summing α, (β* MP_actual,305,previous) and (ε*CDIM); iv) computer readable program code devices configured to causethe computer to effect the, for each of said one or more individualmilk-producing animals, calculating of the transition monitor value(TM_ind,time) by subtracting the individual's MP_expected,time from herMP_actual,time; v) computer readable program code devices configured tocause the computer to effect the accessible storing of the transitionmonitor value for each of said one or more milk-producing animals; and,vi) computer readable program code devices configured to cause thecomputer to effect the outputting of said transition monitor values foruse in evaluating and optimizing health and productivity of the one ormore milk-producing animals; whereby a computer program product isprovided for calculating the expected amount of milk an individualmilk-producing animal will produce in its current lactation based on theindividual's actual performance in its previous lactation and on itscurrent state, for use in calculating a transition monitor valueindicative of the individual's transition performance and usable forevaluating and optimizing the individual's health and productivity. 15.An apparatus for calculating a transition monitor value (TM_ind,time)for one or more milk-producing animals at a given time period in acurrent lactation so as to enable its use in evaluating and optimallymanaging the health and productivity of said one or more milk-producinganimals, the apparatus comprising: a) means for accessibly storing ananimal data set comprising, for each of said one or more milk-producinganimals, an amount of milk produced in the individual's previouslactation (MP_actual,305,previous), a current number of days in milk ata test day (CDIM), and an actual amount of milk produced by theindividual in a current lactation for the given time period(MP_actual,time); b) means for accessibly storing a parameters data setcomprising α, a regression coefficient intercept, and regressioncoefficients β associated with MP_actual,305,previous, and ε associatedwith CDIM; c) for each of said one or more individual milk-producinganimals, means for calculating an expected amount of milk produced bythe individual in the current lactation for the given time period(MP_expected,time) by summing α, (β* MP_actual,305,previous) and (ε*CDIM); d) for each of said one or more individual milk-producinganimals, means for calculating the transition monitor value(TM_ind,time) by subtracting the individual's MP_expected,time from herMP_actual,time; e) means for accessibly storing the transition monitorvalue for each of said one or more milk-producing animals; and, f) meansfor outputting said transition monitor values for use in evaluating andoptimizing health and productivity of the one or more milk-producinganimals; whereby an apparatus is provided for calculating the expectedamount of milk an individual milk-producing animal will produce in itscurrent lactation based on the individual's actual performance in itsprevious lactation and on its current state, for use in calculating atransition monitor value indicative of the individual's transitionperformance and usable for evaluating and optimizing the individual'shealth and productivity.